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Cornellà vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
11/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cornellà53%
×Draw25%
Vilassar Mar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.56
Vilassar Mar
0.91

Cornellà creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 109 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.94
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
78%
Cornellà or Vilassar Mar
75%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
47%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
27%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
79%
Cornellà 2+ goals
46%
Cornellà 3+ goals
21%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
60%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
23%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
70%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cornellà scores more
53%
level
25%
Vilassar Mar scores more
22%

Cornellà at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Vilassar Mar

Cornellà beat Vilassar Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.