Cornellà 3–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Cornellà

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

Claudio 90+6', 90+4'

Canario 27'

10/14/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà39%

×Draw31%

Unionistas de Salamanca30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.90

Cornellà

1.08

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.90

Cornellà creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

0.89

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

70%

Cornellà or Unionistas de Salamanca

69%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

61%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

16%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

66%

Cornellà 2+ goals

29%

Cornellà 3+ goals

10%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

59%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

23%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

57%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cornellà scores more

39%

level

31%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

30%

Cornellà at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

39'

45'

45+4'

46'

46'

Sergio Ayala← Marc Vilaplana

46'

Adri Gómez← Javi Villar

46'

Juanito Serrano← Alfred Planas

55'

55'

64'

64'

64'

Marc Tenas← Mamor Niang

67'

Asier Teijeira← Slavy

67'

Mario Losada← Manu Ramírez

75'

Adam Cherradi← Canario

79'

S. Ayala

81'

Varo Gómez← Héctor Nespral

82'

90+1'

90+4'

90+6'

Cornellà

Unionistas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Canario

⚽2

Claudio

▼

Niang

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

46'▲José Mas←▼Kike Ríos

46'▲Sergio Ayala←▼Marc Vilaplana

64'▲Koffi←▼Kike López

64'▲Marc Tenas←▼Mamor Niang

75'▲Adam Cherradi←▼Canario

Cornellà substitutes

MasAyalaKoffiTenasCherradiGarridoGonpiHaoMacíasGorritiSomaPesca

Manager: Dani Ponz

46'▲Adri Gómez←▼Javi Villar

46'▲Juanito Serrano←▼Alfred Planas

67'▲Asier Teijeira←▼Slavy

67'▲Mario Losada←▼Manu Ramírez

81'▲Varo Gómez←▼Héctor Nespral

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

GómezSerranoTeijeiraLosadaGómezUrainJiménezTurCacharrón

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Cornellà beat Unionistas de Salamanca 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 14, 2023.

Goals: Canario (27'), Claudio (90+4', 90+6').

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.

Cornellà vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Unionistas de Salamanca