Cornellà 0–0 UD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UD Logroñés

4/9/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cornellà37%

×Draw32%

UD Logroñés31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.89

Cornellà

1.00

UD Logroñés

0.89

Cornellà creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

0.71

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

UD Logroñés

1.06

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

UD Logroñés

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

69%

Cornellà or UD Logroñés

68%

Draw or UD Logroñés

63%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

14%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

63%

Cornellà 2+ goals

26%

Cornellà 3+ goals

8%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

59%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

22%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

54%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cornellà scores more

37%

level

32%

UD Logroñés scores more

31%

Cornellà at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

X. Boniquet

21'

C. Blanco

26'

J. Sierra

57'

Carlos Doncel← Dani Pichín

57'

Iñaki← Eudald Vergés

61'

Carlos Ramos← Xavi Boniquet

67'

Nahuel Arroyo← Alfred Planas

76'

Rubén Enri← Gil Muntadas

76'

Xesc Fullana← Ramón Folch

79'

Z. Thior

84'

N. Asare← Raúl Tavares

84'

Pere Martínez← Kike López

86'

Menudo← Z. Thior

86'

Vinícius Tanque← Claudio

Cornellà

UD

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Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

67'▲Nahuel Arroyo←▼Alfred Planas

76'▲Rubén Enri←▼Gil Muntadas

76'▲Xesc Fullana←▼Ramón Folch

84'▲N. Asare←▼Raúl Tavares

84'▲Pere Martínez←▼Kike López

Cornellà substitutes

ArroyoEnriFullanaAsareMartínezRibellesFalcónCanalesTraoréNiangVilaplana

Manager: Sergio Rodríguez

57'▲Carlos Doncel←▼Dani Pichín

57'▲Iñaki←▼Eudald Vergés

61'▲Carlos Ramos←▼Xavi Boniquet

86'▲Menudo←▼Z. Thior

86'▲Vinícius Tanque←▼Claudio

UD Logroñés substitutes

DoncelIñakiRamosMenudoTanqueDazaKeitaAlgarraSchutteRufoLópezFernández