Cornellà 1–1 Ucam Murcia: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ucam Murcia

4/9/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà51%

×Draw27%

Ucam Murcia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchUcam Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.80

Cornellà

1.41

Ucam Murcia

0.80

Cornellà creates 76% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.08

creates per match

0.89

0.71

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

Ucam Murcia

0.89

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

Ucam Murcia

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Ucam Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

79%

Cornellà or Ucam Murcia

73%

Draw or Ucam Murcia

49%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

25%

Ucam Murcia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

76%

Cornellà 2+ goals

41%

Cornellà 3+ goals

17%

Ucam Murcia 1+ goals

55%

Ucam Murcia 2+ goals

19%

Ucam Murcia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

71%

Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Ucam Murcia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ucam Murcia attack 0.89 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cornellà scores more

51%

level

27%

Ucam Murcia scores more

21%

Cornellà at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff