Cornellà 4–1 Tona: Result & Stats

Cornellà

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Tona

M. Fernandez 45'

L. dos Reis 43'

S. Golubovic 19'

S. Guzman 4'

J. Garcia 40'

12/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cornellà53%

×Draw24%

Tona23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchTona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.06

Cornellà

1.75

Tona

1.06

Cornellà creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 66 away

1.94

creates per match

1.24

0.89

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cornellà

1.94

Tona

1.24

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Tona

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Tona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Tona →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

77%

Cornellà or Tona

76%

Draw or Tona

47%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

30%

Tona wins by 2+

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

83%

Cornellà 2+ goals

52%

Cornellà 3+ goals

25%

Tona 1+ goals

65%

Tona 2+ goals

29%

Tona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

70%

Tona (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Tona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Tona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tona attack 1.24 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cornellà scores more

53%

level

24%

Tona scores more

23%

Cornellà at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

40'

43'

45'

Cornellà

Tona

Manager: Lopo

Manager: Ricard Farrés