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Cornellà vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
1/22/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà46%
×Draw29%
San Fernando CD25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.29
San Fernando CD
0.87

Cornellà creates 48% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
75%
Cornellà or San Fernando CD
71%
Draw or San Fernando CD
54%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
21%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
72%
Cornellà 2+ goals
37%
Cornellà 3+ goals
14%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
58%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
22%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
65%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cornellà scores more
46%
level
29%
San Fernando CD scores more
25%

Cornellà at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Cornellà 2–0 San Fernando CD

Cornellà beat San Fernando CD 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.