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Cornellà vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
10/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cornellà54%
×Draw26%
San Cristóbal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.54
San Cristóbal
0.83

Cornellà creates 86% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 108 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.94
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
80%
Cornellà or San Cristóbal
74%
Draw or San Cristóbal
46%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
28%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
79%
Cornellà 2+ goals
45%
Cornellà 3+ goals
20%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
56%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
20%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
73%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cornellà scores more
54%
level
26%
San Cristóbal scores more
20%

Cornellà at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cornellà 4–0 San Cristóbal

Cornellà beat San Cristóbal 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.