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Cornellà vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
10/8/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà44%
×Draw30%
Real Madrid II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.18
Real Madrid II
0.84

Cornellà creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
74%
Cornellà or Real Madrid II
70%
Draw or Real Madrid II
56%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
19%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
69%
Cornellà 2+ goals
33%
Cornellà 3+ goals
12%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
57%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
21%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
63%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cornellà scores more
44%
level
30%
Real Madrid II scores more
26%

Cornellà at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Cornellà 1–0 Real Madrid II

Cornellà beat Real Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.