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Cornellà vs Real Betis II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
2/5/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà49%
×Draw28%
Real Betis II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.34
Real Betis II
0.80

Cornellà creates 68% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
Real Betis II
0.89

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
Real Betis II
1.60

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
78%
Cornellà or Real Betis II
72%
Draw or Real Betis II
51%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
24%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
74%
Cornellà 2+ goals
39%
Cornellà 3+ goals
15%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
55%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
19%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
69%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Real Betis II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Betis II attack 0.89 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cornellà scores more
49%
level
28%
Real Betis II scores more
22%

Cornellà at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Cornellà 2–0 Real Betis II

Cornellà beat Real Betis II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.