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Cornellà vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
12/2/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà42%
×Draw30%
Rayo Majadahonda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.18
Rayo Majadahonda
0.93

Cornellà creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Cornellà
0.89
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
71%
Cornellà or Rayo Majadahonda
70%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
58%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
18%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
69%
Cornellà 2+ goals
33%
Cornellà 3+ goals
12%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
61%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
24%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
59%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cornellà scores more
42%
level
30%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
29%

Cornellà at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cornellà 2–2 Rayo Majadahonda

Cornellà and Rayo Majadahonda drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.