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Cornellà vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
5/5/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà32%
×Draw33%
Ponferradina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
0.88
Ponferradina
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cornellà
0.89
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
65%
Cornellà or Ponferradina
67%
Draw or Ponferradina
68%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
11%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
59%
Cornellà 2+ goals
22%
Cornellà 3+ goals
6%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
60%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
23%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
48%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Cornellà scores more
32%
level
33%
Ponferradina scores more
35%

Ponferradina at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Ponferradina

Ponferradina beat Cornellà 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.