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Cornellà vs Lugo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lugo
Lugo
12/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà39%
×Draw32%
Lugo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.05
Lugo
0.86

Cornellà creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cornellà
0.89
Lugo
0.84

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Lugo
1.21

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
71%
Cornellà or Lugo
68%
Draw or Lugo
61%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
16%
Lugo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
65%
Cornellà 2+ goals
28%
Cornellà 3+ goals
9%
Lugo 1+ goals
58%
Lugo 2+ goals
21%
Lugo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
57%
Lugo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Lugo attack 0.84 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cornellà scores more
39%
level
32%
Lugo scores more
29%

Cornellà at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Lugo

Cornellà beat Lugo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós in Palamós.