Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cornellà vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
1/30/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà48%
×Draw27%
Linares Deportivo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.45
Linares Deportivo
0.97

Cornellà creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
75%
Cornellà or Linares Deportivo
73%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
52%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
24%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
77%
Cornellà 2+ goals
42%
Cornellà 3+ goals
18%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
62%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
25%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
66%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cornellà scores more
48%
level
27%
Linares Deportivo scores more
25%

Cornellà at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Linares Deportivo

Cornellà beat Linares Deportivo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.