Cornellà 1–0 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fuenlabrada

Claudio 47'

9/3/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà47%

×Draw30%

Fuenlabrada23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.73

Cornellà

1.20

Fuenlabrada

0.73

Cornellà creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

0.58

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Fuenlabrada

0.58

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Fuenlabrada

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

77%

Cornellà or Fuenlabrada

70%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

53%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

21%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

70%

Cornellà 2+ goals

34%

Cornellà 3+ goals

12%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

52%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

17%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

68%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cornellà scores more

47%

level

30%

Fuenlabrada scores more

23%

Cornellà at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

Claudio

60'

Dani Nieto← Raúl Hernández

60'

Diego Gómez← Cristóbal

60'

Fer Ruiz← Sergio Benito

62'

Toni Arranz

67'

Gonpi← Canario

73'

Carlos Vigaray← David Alba

77'

C. Vigaray

79'

Adam Cherradi← Toni Arranz

79'

Carles Garrido← Marc Tenas

79'

José Mas← Claudio

85'

Mamor Niang← Kike López

85'

Juan Durán← Álvaro Barbosa

Cornellà

Fuenlabrada

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Claudio

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

67'▲Gonpi←▼Canario

79'▲Adam Cherradi←▼Toni Arranz

79'▲Carles Garrido←▼Marc Tenas

79'▲José Mas←▼Claudio

85'▲Mamor Niang←▼Kike López

Cornellà substitutes

GonpiCherradiGarridoMasNiangJiménezKoffiMacíasGorritiPescaAyalaMeikher

Manager: Carlos Martínez

60'▲Dani Nieto←▼Raúl Hernández

60'▲Diego Gómez←▼Cristóbal

60'▲Fer Ruiz←▼Sergio Benito

73'▲Carlos Vigaray←▼David Alba

85'▲Juan Durán←▼Álvaro Barbosa

Fuenlabrada substitutes

NietoGómezRuizVigarayDuránDíazSánchezBravoMuriana

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Fuenlabrada

Cornellà beat Fuenlabrada 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 3, 2023.

Goals: Claudio (47').

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque in San Adrián de Besós.

Cornellà vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Fuenlabrada