Cornellà 1–1 Eldense: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eldense

Gil Muntadas 59'

Cristian López 83' (pen)

3/12/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà40%

×Draw32%

Eldense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.83

Cornellà

1.06

Eldense

0.83

Cornellà creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.08

creates per match

0.95

0.71

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

Eldense

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

72%

Cornellà or Eldense

68%

Draw or Eldense

60%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

16%

Eldense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

65%

Cornellà 2+ goals

29%

Cornellà 3+ goals

9%

Eldense 1+ goals

56%

Eldense 2+ goals

20%

Eldense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

59%

Eldense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Eldense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Eldense attack 0.95 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cornellà scores more

40%

level

32%

Eldense scores more

28%

Cornellà at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Gil Muntadas

60'

Álex Bernal← Fran Carnicer

60'

Joel Jorquera← Juanto

60'

Xavi Estació← Cris Montes

65'

X. Estacio

65'

Nahuel Arroyo← Mamor Niang

66'

M. Traoré← Xesc Fullana

72'

Cristian López← Sergio Ortu

72'

José Antonio Pardo← Miguel Núñez

78'

Alfred Planas← Kike López

81'

M. Traore

81'

83'

Cristian LópezPenalty

85'

M. Traore

85'

M. Traore

85'

Pere Martínez← Gil Muntadas

85'

Ramón Folch← Raúl Tavares

Cornellà

Eldense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Muntadas

▼

Tavares

▼

Niang

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

65'▲Nahuel Arroyo←▼Mamor Niang

66'▲M. Traoré←▼Xesc Fullana

78'▲Alfred Planas←▼Kike López

85'▲Pere Martínez←▼Gil Muntadas

85'▲Ramón Folch←▼Raúl Tavares

Cornellà substitutes

ArroyoTraoréPlanasMartínezFolchLópezGarridoFalcónCanalesVilaplanaValterTejada

Manager: Fernando Estévez

60'▲Álex Bernal←▼Fran Carnicer

60'▲Joel Jorquera←▼Juanto

60'▲Xavi Estació←▼Cris Montes

72'▲Cristian López←▼Sergio Ortu

72'▲José Antonio Pardo←▼Miguel Núñez

Eldense substitutes

BernalJorqueraEstacióLópezPardoStamatakisGonzálezClementeCorreia