Cornellà 1–2 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cultural Leonesa

Armando Ortiz 32'

Carlos Calderón 21'

Rodri Escudero 18'

5/18/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio Nou Municipal de Palamós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà37%

×Draw30%

Cultural Leonesa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.02

Cornellà

1.10

Cultural Leonesa

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

0.89

creates per match

1.16

0.89

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

67%

Cornellà or Cultural Leonesa

70%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

63%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

15%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

67%

Cornellà 2+ goals

30%

Cornellà 3+ goals

10%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

64%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

27%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

53%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cornellà scores more

37%

level

30%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

33%

Cornellà at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Rodri Escudero

21'

Carlos Calderón

32'

Armando Ortiz

44'

Rodri Suarez

58'

Berto González← Guillermo Fernández

59'

Aleix Coch← Quique Fornos

60'

Barri

62'

Claudio← Toni Arranz

67'

S. Ayala

68'

Fabio Blanco← Luis Bilbao

68'

Martín Solar← Bicho

71'

C. Calderon

71'

José Mas← Robert Simón

71'

Pol Montesinos← Kike López

73'

A. Caballero

78'

Bobi← E. Sutherland

78'

Gonpi← Antonio Caballero

80'

Kevin Presa← Rodri Escudero

87'

E. Verges

Cornellà

Cultural

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⚽

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⚽

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Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

62'▲Claudio←▼Toni Arranz

71'▲José Mas←▼Robert Simón

71'▲Pol Montesinos←▼Kike López

78'▲Bobi←▼E. Sutherland

78'▲Gonpi←▼Antonio Caballero

Cornellà substitutes

ClaudioMasMontesinosBobiGonpiCanarioTejadaHaoVilaplanaMeikherBenet

Manager: Raúl Llona

58'▲Berto González←▼Guillermo Fernández

59'▲Aleix Coch←▼Quique Fornos

68'▲Fabio Blanco←▼Luis Bilbao

68'▲Martín Solar←▼Bicho

80'▲Kevin Presa←▼Rodri Escudero

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

GonzálezCochBlancoSolarPresaReyGuitiánRodríguezJuniorMuguruzaToca