Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cornellà vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
M. Fernandez 62', 19'
1/31/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cornellà54%
×Draw24%
Cerdanyola del Vallès22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.69
Cerdanyola del Vallès
0.99

Cornellà creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.94
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
78%
Cornellà or Cerdanyola del Vallès
76%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
46%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
29%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
82%
Cornellà 2+ goals
50%
Cornellà 3+ goals
24%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
63%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
26%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
71%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cornellà scores more
54%
level
24%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
22%

Cornellà at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Ramos
19'
M. Fernandez
62'
M. Fernandez
Cornellà
Cerdanyola
Lopo
Manager: Lopo
Santi Álvarez
Manager: Santi Álvarez

Cornellà 2 – 0 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Cornellà beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Fernandez (19', 62').

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.