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Cornellà vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
5/7/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà43%
×Draw29%
Athletic Club II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.25
Athletic Club II
0.95

Cornellà creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
72%
Cornellà or Athletic Club II
71%
Draw or Athletic Club II
57%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
19%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
71%
Cornellà 2+ goals
36%
Cornellà 3+ goals
13%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
61%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
25%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
61%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cornellà scores more
43%
level
29%
Athletic Club II scores more
28%

Cornellà at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cornellà 1 – 0 Athletic Club II

Cornellà beat Athletic Club II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.