Cornellà 1–2 Arenteiro: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arenteiro

E. Sutherland 90+6'

Manin 70'

Luis Chacón 24'

4/13/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadi Municipal La Bòbila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà43%

×Draw31%

Arenteiro26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchArenteiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.82

Cornellà

1.14

Arenteiro

0.82

Cornellà creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

0.89

creates per match

0.75

0.89

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Arenteiro

0.75

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Arenteiro

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Arenteiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

74%

Cornellà or Arenteiro

69%

Draw or Arenteiro

57%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

18%

Arenteiro wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

68%

Cornellà 2+ goals

32%

Cornellà 3+ goals

11%

Arenteiro 1+ goals

56%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

20%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

62%

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Arenteiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arenteiro attack 0.75 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cornellà scores more

43%

level

31%

Arenteiro scores more

26%

Cornellà at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'

6'

J. Sanchez

24'

Luis Chacón

46'

Robert Simón← José Mas

48'

58'

58'

67'

67'

E. Sutherland← Armando Ortiz

67'

Álex Cardero← Iván Ramos

70'

R. Mino

70'

Manin

72'

C. Santos← Manin

72'

Lucas Sena← A. Pastoriza

72'

Marquitos← Jordan Sánchez

80'

Luisao Macías← Antonio Caballero

80'

P. Soma← Marc Tenas

87'

Tiago Rodríguez← Luis Chacón

90+6'

E. Sutherland

Cornellà

Arenteiro

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Chacón

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

46'▲Robert Simón←▼José Mas

67'▲Canario←▼Kike Ríos

67'▲E. Sutherland←▼Armando Ortiz

80'▲Luisao Macías←▼Antonio Caballero

80'▲P. Soma←▼Marc Tenas

Cornellà substitutes

SimónCanarioSutherlandMacíasSomaGonpiVilaplanaMeikher

Manager: Javi Rey

67'▲Álex Cardero←▼Iván Ramos

72'▲C. Santos←▼Manin

72'▲Lucas Sena←▼A. Pastoriza

72'▲Marquitos←▼Jordan Sánchez

87'▲Tiago Rodríguez←▼Luis Chacón

Arenteiro substitutes

CarderoSantosSenaMarquitosRodríguezBuesoRomayBerardozziVitra

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cornellà 1–2 Arenteiro

Arenteiro beat Cornellà 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 13, 2024.

Goals: Luis Chacón (24'), Manin (70'), E. Sutherland (90+6').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal La Bòbila in Gavà.

Cornellà vs Arenteiro — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cornellà 1–2 Arenteiro