Cornellà 0–2 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Amorebieta

Urko Izeta 82', 49'

11/6/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà38%

×Draw32%

Amorebieta31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.89

Cornellà

1.03

Amorebieta

0.89

Cornellà creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

1.07

0.71

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

69%

Cornellà or Amorebieta

68%

Draw or Amorebieta

62%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

15%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

64%

Cornellà 2+ goals

28%

Cornellà 3+ goals

9%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

59%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

22%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

55%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cornellà scores more

38%

level

32%

Amorebieta scores more

31%

Cornellà at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

X. Etxeita

39'

Nana

49'

Urko Izeta

61'

Alfred Planas← Nahuel Arroyo

62'

Mikel Pradera← Eneko Jauregi

72'

M. Gorriti← Rubén Enri

72'

Ramón Folch← N. Asare

76'

Josué Dorrio← Unai Buján

76'

Rayco Rodríguez← Antonio Jesús

82'

Urko Izeta

86'

Mamor Niang← Kike López

86'

Raúl Tavares← Carlos Blanco

87'

Haritz Albisua← Urko Izeta

87'

Víctor López← Jorge Mier

90+2'

Marcos Gorriti

Cornellà

Amorebieta

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

61'▲Alfred Planas←▼Nahuel Arroyo

72'▲M. Gorriti←▼Rubén Enri

72'▲Ramón Folch←▼N. Asare

86'▲Mamor Niang←▼Kike López

86'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Carlos Blanco

Cornellà substitutes

PlanasGorritiFolchNiangTavaresDaneseMartínCanalesVilaplanaMartínezBaldrichValter

Manager: Haritz Mújika

62'▲Mikel Pradera←▼Eneko Jauregi

76'▲Josué Dorrio←▼Unai Buján

76'▲Rayco Rodríguez←▼Antonio Jesús

87'▲Haritz Albisua←▼Urko Izeta

87'▲Víctor López←▼Jorge Mier

Amorebieta substitutes

PraderaDorrioRodríguezAlbisuaLópezMikelRodríguezHerrero