Cork City W 2–2 Wexford Youths W: Result & Stats

Cork City W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Wexford Youths W

3/23/2024

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cork City W17%

×Draw20%

Wexford Youths W63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork City WExpected goals in this matchWexford Youths W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.15

Cork City W

1.00

Wexford Youths W

2.15

Wexford Youths W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

1.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cork City W

1.00

Wexford Youths W

2.50

allows per match

Cork City W

1.80

Wexford Youths W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City W+0.00on par

Wexford Youths W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City W ↓

Wexford Youths W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Cork City W or draw

37%

Cork City W or Wexford Youths W

80%

Draw or Wexford Youths W

83%

Winning margin

Cork City W wins by 2+

6%

Wexford Youths W wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Cork City W 1+ goals

63%

Cork City W 2+ goals

26%

Cork City W 3+ goals

8%

Wexford Youths W 1+ goals

88%

Wexford Youths W 2+ goals

63%

Wexford Youths W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Cork City W (draw refunded)

21%

Wexford Youths W (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Wexford Youths W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City W attack 1.00 + Wexford Youths W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wexford Youths W attack 2.50 + Cork City W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Cork City W scores more

17%

level

20%

Wexford Youths W scores more

63%

Wexford Youths W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Wexford Youths W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff