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Cork City W vs Peamount United W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Cork City W
Cork City W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Peamount United W
Peamount United W
M. McGonnell 90'
R. Gallagher 78'
A. Guvo 33'
4/26/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cork City W26%
×Draw24%
Peamount United W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cork City W
1.15
Peamount United W
1.69

Peamount United W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cork City W
1.00
Peamount United W
1.57

allows per match

Cork City W
1.80
Peamount United W
1.29

finishing

Cork City W+0.00on par
Peamount United W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City W ↓

Peamount United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cork City W or draw
50%
Cork City W or Peamount United W
76%
Draw or Peamount United W
74%

Winning margin

Cork City W wins by 2+
10%
Peamount United W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Cork City W 1+ goals
68%
Cork City W 2+ goals
32%
Cork City W 3+ goals
11%
Peamount United W 1+ goals
82%
Peamount United W 2+ goals
50%
Peamount United W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cork City W (draw refunded)
34%
Peamount United W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Peamount United W away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City W attack 1.00 + Peamount United W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Peamount United W attack 1.57 + Cork City W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cork City W scores more
26%
level
24%
Peamount United W scores more
50%

Peamount United W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Peamount United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Guvo
78'
R. Gallagher
90'
M. McGonnell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cork City W vs Peamount United W

Peamount United W beat Cork City W 3-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on April 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Guvo (33'), R. Gallagher (78'), M. McGonnell (90').

The match was played at Turner's Cross in Cork.