Cork City W 2–1 DLR Waves W: Result & Stats

Cork City W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

DLR Waves W

K. Sena 35'

C. Atkinson 15'

K. Malone 56' (pen)

6/17/2023

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1Turner's Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cork City W59%

×Draw21%

DLR Waves W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork City WExpected goals in this matchDLR Waves W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.15

Cork City W

2.08

DLR Waves W

1.15

Cork City W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

1.80

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Cork City W

1.00

DLR Waves W

0.50

allows per match

Cork City W

1.80

DLR Waves W

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City W+0.00on par

DLR Waves W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City W ↓

DLR Waves W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cork City W or draw

79%

Cork City W or DLR Waves W

79%

Draw or DLR Waves W

41%

Winning margin

Cork City W wins by 2+

36%

DLR Waves W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cork City W 1+ goals

87%

Cork City W 2+ goals

61%

Cork City W 3+ goals

34%

DLR Waves W 1+ goals

68%

DLR Waves W 2+ goals

32%

DLR Waves W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cork City W (draw refunded)

74%

DLR Waves W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

DLR Waves W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City W attack 1.00 + DLR Waves W defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

DLR Waves W attack 0.50 + Cork City W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cork City W scores more

59%

level

21%

DLR Waves W scores more

21%

Cork City W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cork City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

C. Atkinson

35'

K. Sena

56'

K. MalonePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff