Cork City 1–6 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Cork City

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

D. Obenge 62'

Y. Salech 90'

R. Tankiewicz 88', 76'

I. Davies 83', 73'

C. Robinson 40'

7/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cork City26%

×Draw20%

Cardiff54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.33

Cork City

1.58

Cardiff

2.33

Cardiff creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.17

creates per match

2.50

2.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cork City

2.17

Cardiff

2.50

allows per match

Cork City

2.17

Cardiff

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Cardiff →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

46%

Cork City or Cardiff

80%

Draw or Cardiff

74%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

12%

Cardiff wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

79%

Cork City 2+ goals

47%

Cork City 3+ goals

21%

Cardiff 1+ goals

90%

Cardiff 2+ goals

67%

Cardiff 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

32%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 2.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Cardiff away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 2.17 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cardiff attack 2.50 + Cork City defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cork City scores more

26%

level

20%

Cardiff scores more

54%

Cardiff at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

62'

73'

76'

83'

88'

90'

Cork

Cardiff

⚽

👔

Manager: Barry Robson

👔

Manager: Brian Barry-Murphy

Match Recap: Cork City vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Cork City 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.

Goals: C. Robinson (40'), D. Obenge (62'), I. Davies (73', 83'), R. Tankiewicz (76', 88'), Y. Salech (90').

Cork City vs Cardiff — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cork City vs Cardiff