Coritiba 2–1 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Coritiba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza EC

Hugo 90+4'

Léo Gamalho 2'

Habraão 85'

7/3/2022

Serie A · Round 15Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Coritiba39%

×Draw26%

Fortaleza EC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.31

Coritiba

1.38

Fortaleza EC

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 41 away

1.11

creates per match

1.06

1.56

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Coritiba

1.11

Fortaleza EC

1.06

allows per match

Coritiba

1.56

Fortaleza EC

1.64

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Coritiba-0.16scores less

Fortaleza EC+0.04on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

65%

Coritiba or Fortaleza EC

74%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

61%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

18%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

75%

Coritiba 2+ goals

40%

Coritiba 3+ goals

16%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

73%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

38%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

52%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 21 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.64 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.11 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fortaleza EC attack 1.06 + Coritiba defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Coritiba scores more

39%

level

26%

Fortaleza EC scores more

35%

Coritiba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Henrique

Coritiba · D

7.7

Match Events

2'

Léo Gamalho↳ Alef Manga

31'

Thonny Anderson← Warley

33'

Alef Manga

42'

Val

45'

Ronald

46'

Hugo← Alef Manga

46'

Yago Pikachu← Vitor Ricardo

46'

Hércules← Ronald

46'

Lucas Lima← Matheus Vargas

61'

Egídio← Diego Porfirio

67'

Nathan← Thonny Anderson

67'

Bernardo Lemes← Fabrício Daniel

78'

Lucas Crispim← Titi

78'

S. Romero← Moises

80'

Juninho Capixaba

83'

Nathan MendesCard upgrade

84'

Nathan Mendes

85'

Habraão↳ Romarinho

90+4'

Hugo↳ Rafael William

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaFortaleza

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots22

2Corners6

11Fouls22

Shots

11Total Shots22

4On Target7

4Off Target8

3Blocked7

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box14

Passing

38%Possession62%

288Total Passes475

217Accurate Passes417

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls22

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1