Coritiba 0–2 Corinthians: Result & Stats | Serie A

Coritiba

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Corinthians

12/7/2023

Serie A · Round 38Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Coritiba34%

×Draw29%

Corinthians38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.17

Coritiba

1.09

Corinthians

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

0.87

creates per match

0.86

1.47

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Coritiba

0.87

Corinthians

0.86

allows per match

Coritiba

1.47

Corinthians

1.31

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba+0.23scores more

Corinthians+0.29scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

62%

Coritiba or Corinthians

71%

Draw or Corinthians

66%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

13%

Corinthians wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

66%

Coritiba 2+ goals

30%

Coritiba 3+ goals

10%

Corinthians 1+ goals

69%

Corinthians 2+ goals

33%

Corinthians 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

47%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 10 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 0.87 + Corinthians defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Corinthians attack 0.86 + Coritiba defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Coritiba scores more

34%

level

29%

Corinthians scores more

38%

Corinthians at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff