Coritiba 2–1 BOA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

BOA

Guilherme Parede 52'

Rafael Lima 11'

Juninho Potiguar 19'

9/4/2018

Serie B · Round 25Estadio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Coritiba57%

×Draw28%

BOA15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchBOA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.56

Coritiba

1.38

BOA

0.56

Coritiba creates 146% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.43

0.70

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Coritiba

1.33

BOA

0.43

allows per match

Coritiba

0.70

BOA

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coritiba+0.00on par

BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

BOA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

85%

Coritiba or BOA

72%

Draw or BOA

43%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

29%

BOA wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

75%

Coritiba 2+ goals

40%

Coritiba 3+ goals

16%

BOA 1+ goals

43%

BOA 2+ goals

11%

BOA 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

79%

BOA (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.70 · 73 matches

BOA away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.33 + BOA defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

BOA attack 0.43 + Coritiba defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Coritiba scores more

57%

level

28%

BOA scores more

15%

Coritiba at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Thalisson Kelven

11'

Rafael Lima↳ Jean Carlos

19'

Juninho Potiguar↳ Aldo

34'

Vitor Carvalho

39'

Rodrigão Prado

42'

Wellington Simião

52'

Guilherme Parede↳ Bruno Moraes

61'

Adauto← Aldo

63'

Juninho Potiguar

66'

Julio Rusch← Abner Felipe

67'

Manoel← Alyson

70'

Juninho Potiguar

70'

Juninho Potiguar

72'

Thiago← Welington Simião

81'

Thallyson← PH

83'

Manoel

85'

Alecsandro← Bruno Moraes

87'

Guilherme Parede

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaBOA

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots7

5Corners4

18Fouls25

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target1

4Off Target5

4Blocked1

5Inside Box2

7Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

330Total Passes377

235Accurate Passes288

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls25

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3

Coritiba 2 – 1 BOA

Coritiba beat BOA 2-1 in Serie B on September 4, 2018.

Goals: Rafael Lima (11'), Juninho Potiguar (19'), Guilherme Parede (52').

BOA controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Couto Pereira in Curitiba.

Coritiba vs BOA — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Coritiba 2 – 1 BOA