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Coritiba U20 vs Prudentópolis U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Coritiba U20
Coritiba U20
FT
8 – 2
Prudentópolis U20
Prudentópolis U20
5/10/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 9Centro de Treinamento Bayard Osna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Coritiba U2086%
×Draw9%
Prudentópolis U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coritiba U20
3.31
Prudentópolis U20
0.67

Coritiba U20 creates 394% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

creates per match

Coritiba U20
1.96
Prudentópolis U20
0.67

allows per match

Coritiba U20
0.67
Prudentópolis U20
4.67

finishing

Coritiba U20+0.00on par
Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba U20 ↓

Prudentópolis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Coritiba U20 or draw
95%
Coritiba U20 or Prudentópolis U20
91%
Draw or Prudentópolis U20
14%

Winning margin

Coritiba U20 wins by 2+
69%
Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Coritiba U20 1+ goals
96%
Coritiba U20 2+ goals
83%
Coritiba U20 3+ goals
62%
Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals
49%
Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals
15%
Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Coritiba U20 (draw refunded)
95%
Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba U20 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Prudentópolis U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba U20 attack 1.96 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.31

Prudentópolis U20 attack 0.67 + Coritiba U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Coritiba U20 scores more
86%
level
9%
Prudentópolis U20 scores more
5%

Coritiba U20 at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Coritiba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Coritiba U20 8–2 Prudentópolis U20

Coritiba U20 beat Prudentópolis U20 8-2 in Paranaense U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Bayard Osna in Curitiba, Paraná.