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Coritiba U20 vs Iraty U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Coritiba U20
Coritiba U20
FT
5 – 1
Iraty U20
Iraty U20
3/30/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3Centro de Treinamento Bayard Osna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Coritiba U2072%
×Draw16%
Iraty U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coritiba U20
2.60
Iraty U20
0.96

Coritiba U20 creates 171% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 4 away

creates per match

Coritiba U20
1.96
Iraty U20
1.25

allows per match

Coritiba U20
0.67
Iraty U20
3.25

finishing

Coritiba U20+0.00on par
Iraty U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba U20 ↓

Iraty U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Coritiba U20 or draw
88%
Coritiba U20 or Iraty U20
84%
Draw or Iraty U20
28%

Winning margin

Coritiba U20 wins by 2+
50%
Iraty U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Coritiba U20 1+ goals
92%
Coritiba U20 2+ goals
73%
Coritiba U20 3+ goals
47%
Iraty U20 1+ goals
62%
Iraty U20 2+ goals
25%
Iraty U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coritiba U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Iraty U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba U20 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Iraty U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba U20 attack 1.96 + Iraty U20 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.60

Iraty U20 attack 1.25 + Coritiba U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Coritiba U20 scores more
72%
level
16%
Iraty U20 scores more
12%

Coritiba U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Coritiba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coritiba U20 vs Iraty U20

Coritiba U20 beat Iraty U20 5-1 in Paranaense U20 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Bayard Osna in Curitiba, Paraná.