Coritiba U17 2–4 Atlético Mineiro U17

Coritiba U17

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Mineiro U17

5/20/2026

Copa do Brasil U17 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coritiba U1744%

×Draw21%

Atlético Mineiro U1735%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coritiba U17Expected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.83

Coritiba U17

2.08

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.83

Coritiba U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

2.67

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Coritiba U17

2.50

Atlético Mineiro U17

2.67

allows per match

Coritiba U17

1.00

Atlético Mineiro U17

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coritiba U17+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Coritiba U17 or draw

65%

Coritiba U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17

79%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17

56%

Winning margin

Coritiba U17 wins by 2+

25%

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Coritiba U17 1+ goals

87%

Coritiba U17 2+ goals

61%

Coritiba U17 3+ goals

34%

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals

54%

Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Coritiba U17 (draw refunded)

56%

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba U17 attack 2.50 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.67 + Coritiba U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coritiba U17 scores more

44%

level

21%

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more

35%

Coritiba U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coritiba U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff