Corinthians W 1–0 Athletico Paranaense W

Corinthians W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Athletico Paranaense W

Luana Bertolucci 59'

3/26/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Francisco Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Corinthians W78%

×Draw15%

Athletico Paranaense W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians WExpected goals in this matchAthletico Paranaense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

0.69

Corinthians W

2.57

Athletico Paranaense W

0.69

Corinthians W creates 272% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 8 away

3.01

creates per match

0.75

0.63

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Corinthians W

3.01

Athletico Paranaense W

0.75

allows per match

Corinthians W

0.63

Athletico Paranaense W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians W+0.00on par

Athletico Paranaense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians W ↓

Athletico Paranaense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Corinthians W or draw

92%

Corinthians W or Athletico Paranaense W

85%

Draw or Athletico Paranaense W

22%

Winning margin

Corinthians W wins by 2+

56%

Athletico Paranaense W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Corinthians W 1+ goals

92%

Corinthians W 2+ goals

72%

Corinthians W 3+ goals

47%

Athletico Paranaense W 1+ goals

50%

Athletico Paranaense W 2+ goals

15%

Athletico Paranaense W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Corinthians W (draw refunded)

91%

Athletico Paranaense W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians W at home — creates 3.01, concedes 0.63 · 87 matches

Athletico Paranaense W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians W attack 3.01 + Athletico Paranaense W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.57

Athletico Paranaense W attack 0.75 + Corinthians W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Corinthians W scores more

78%

level

15%

Athletico Paranaense W scores more

8%

Corinthians W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

H. Vergara← Alê

46'

Diany← Giovanna Campiolo

46'

Fernandinha← Yasmim

46'

Millene← Victória Albuquerque

58'

Gabi Morais← Ju Ferreira

59'

Luana Bertolucci

67'

Iasmyn Vitória← Joyce

75'

Carol Nogueira← Gabi Portilho

77'

Giovanna← Nathália

Corinthians

Athletico

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Arthur Elias

46'▲Diany←▼Giovanna Campiolo

46'▲Fernandinha←▼Yasmim

46'▲Millene←▼Victória Albuquerque

58'▲Gabi Morais←▼Ju Ferreira

75'▲Carol Nogueira←▼Gabi Portilho

Corinthians W substitutes

DianyFernandinhaMilleneMoraisNogueiraPereiraBelinhaTavaresGraziKatiusciaTaináTarciane

Manager: Brenno

20'▲H. Vergara←▼Alê

67'▲Iasmyn Vitória←▼Joyce

77'▲Giovanna←▼Nathália

Athletico Paranaense W substitutes

VergaraVitóriaGiovannaDudaEllenRenatinhaTostiYasmin

Match Recap: Corinthians W vs Athletico Paranaense W

Corinthians W beat Athletico Paranaense W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 26, 2023.

Goals: Luana Bertolucci (59').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Filho in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.

Corinthians W vs Athletico Paranaense W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Corinthians W vs Athletico Paranaense W