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Corinthians W vs America Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Corinthians W
Corinthians W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
America Mineiro W
America Mineiro W
3/21/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Corinthians W72%
×Draw16%
America Mineiro W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians W
2.53
America Mineiro W
0.93

Corinthians W creates 172% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 22 away

creates per match

Corinthians W
3.01
America Mineiro W
1.23

allows per match

Corinthians W
0.63
America Mineiro W
2.05

finishing

Corinthians W+0.00on par
America Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians W ↓

America Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Corinthians W or draw
88%
Corinthians W or America Mineiro W
84%
Draw or America Mineiro W
28%

Winning margin

Corinthians W wins by 2+
50%
America Mineiro W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Corinthians W 1+ goals
92%
Corinthians W 2+ goals
71%
Corinthians W 3+ goals
46%
America Mineiro W 1+ goals
61%
America Mineiro W 2+ goals
24%
America Mineiro W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Corinthians W (draw refunded)
86%
America Mineiro W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians W at home — creates 3.01, concedes 0.63 · 87 matches

America Mineiro W away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians W attack 3.01 + America Mineiro W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.53

America Mineiro W attack 1.23 + Corinthians W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Corinthians W scores more
72%
level
16%
America Mineiro W scores more
12%

Corinthians W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians W vs America Mineiro W

Corinthians W beat America Mineiro W 4-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Parque São Jorge in São Paulo, São Paulo.