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Corinthians U20 vs União Suzano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
União Suzano U20
União Suzano U20
L. Robert 45'
V. Antonio 10' (OG)
C. A. Soares 28', 25'
7/20/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Corinthians U2058%
×Draw23%
União Suzano U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
1.85
União Suzano U20
0.95

Corinthians U20 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
União Suzano U20
0.95

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
União Suzano U20
1.59

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
81%
Corinthians U20 or União Suzano U20
77%
Draw or União Suzano U20
42%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
34%
União Suzano U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
84%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
55%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
28%
União Suzano U20 1+ goals
61%
União Suzano U20 2+ goals
25%
União Suzano U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
75%
União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
58%
level
23%
União Suzano U20 scores more
19%

Corinthians U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
V. AntonioOwn goal
25'
C. A. Soares
28'
C. A. Soares
45'
L. Robert
85'
H. Pedro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Corinthians U20 2–2 União Suzano U20

Corinthians U20 and União Suzano U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on July 20, 2025.

Goals: V. Antonio (10' o.g.), C. A. Soares (25', 28'), L. Robert (45').

The match was played at Parque São Jorge in São Paulo, São Paulo.