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Corinthians U20 vs União São João U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
União São João U20
União São João U20
Bahia 70'
Leo Agostinho 68'
P. Thomas 62'
M. Dias 87'
5/3/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Corinthians U2055%
×Draw24%
União São João U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
1.75
União São João U20
0.98

Corinthians U20 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
União São João U20
1.00

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
União São João U20
1.37

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

União São João U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
79%
Corinthians U20 or União São João U20
76%
Draw or União São João U20
45%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
31%
União São João U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
83%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
52%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
25%
União São João U20 1+ goals
62%
União São João U20 2+ goals
26%
União São João U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
72%
União São João U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.75

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
55%
level
24%
União São João U20 scores more
21%

Corinthians U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
P. Thomas
68'
Leo Agostinho
70'
Bahia
87'
M. Dias

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians U20 vs União São João U20

Corinthians U20 beat União São João U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: P. Thomas (62'), Leo Agostinho (68'), Bahia (70'), M. Dias (87').

The match was played at Parque São Jorge in São Paulo, São Paulo.