Corinthians U20 4–1 Referencia U20: Result & Stats

Corinthians U20

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Referencia U20

Unknown 88', 19', 13', 7'

Unknown 64'

7/12/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Corinthians U2055%

×Draw22%

Referencia U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians U20Expected goals in this matchReferencia U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.21

Corinthians U20

2.00

Referencia U20

1.21

Corinthians U20 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

2.12

creates per match

1.46

0.96

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Corinthians U20

2.12

Referencia U20

1.46

allows per match

Corinthians U20

0.96

Referencia U20

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw

77%

Corinthians U20 or Referencia U20

78%

Draw or Referencia U20

45%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

33%

Referencia U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

86%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

59%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

32%

Referencia U20 1+ goals

70%

Referencia U20 2+ goals

34%

Referencia U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.00

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more

55%

level

22%

Referencia U20 scores more

23%

Corinthians U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

13'

19'

64'

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff