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Corinthians U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Luiz Fernando 90+2', 43', 11'
Nicolas Araujo 70'
Nicollas 54'
Caragua 29', 5'
Ray 16' (pen)
7/19/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corinthians U2051%
×Draw24%
Ponte Preta U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U20
1.74
Ponte Preta U20
1.16

Corinthians U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Corinthians U20
2.12
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Corinthians U20
0.96
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw
75%
Corinthians U20 or Ponte Preta U20
76%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
49%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
28%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals
82%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
52%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
25%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
69%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
32%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more
51%
level
24%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
25%

Corinthians U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Caragua
11'
Luiz Fernando
16'
RayPenalty
29'
Caragua
43'
Luiz Fernando
54'
Nicollas
70'
Nicolas Araujo
90+2'
Luiz Fernando

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Corinthians U20 beat Ponte Preta U20 7-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 19, 2026.

Goals: Caragua (5', 29'), Luiz Fernando (11', 43', 90+2'), Ray (16' pen), Nicollas (54'), Nicolas Araujo (70').