Corinthians U20 2–2 Ibrachina U20: Result & Stats

Corinthians U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ibrachina U20

A. Luiz 52', 34'

Phellipe 55'

V. Henrique 13'

9/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 4Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Corinthians U2043%

×Draw24%

Ibrachina U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians U20Expected goals in this matchIbrachina U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.40

Corinthians U20

1.65

Ibrachina U20

1.40

Corinthians U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

2.12

creates per match

1.83

0.96

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Corinthians U20

2.12

Ibrachina U20

1.83

allows per match

Corinthians U20

0.96

Ibrachina U20

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw

67%

Corinthians U20 or Ibrachina U20

76%

Draw or Ibrachina U20

57%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

22%

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

81%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

49%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

23%

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

75%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

41%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more

43%

level

24%

Ibrachina U20 scores more

33%

Corinthians U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

V. Henrique

34'

A. Luiz

52'

A. Luiz

55'

Phellipe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff