Corinthians U20 3–2 Araçatuba U20: Result & Stats

Corinthians U20

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Araçatuba U20

Nicolas Araujo 61', 10'

Guilherme Gama 57'

Brito Eduardo 76'

L. Kevin 43'

5/10/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Corinthians U2077%

×Draw13%

Araçatuba U209%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians U20Expected goals in this matchAraçatuba U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.98

Corinthians U20

3.00

Araçatuba U20

0.98

Corinthians U20 creates 206% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

2.12

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Corinthians U20

2.12

Araçatuba U20

1.00

allows per match

Corinthians U20

0.96

Araçatuba U20

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Araçatuba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U20 ↓

Araçatuba U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Corinthians U20 or draw

91%

Corinthians U20 or Araçatuba U20

87%

Draw or Araçatuba U20

23%

Winning margin

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

57%

Araçatuba U20 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

95%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

79%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

56%

Araçatuba U20 1+ goals

62%

Araçatuba U20 2+ goals

26%

Araçatuba U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

89%

Araçatuba U20 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U20 at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Araçatuba U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U20 attack 2.12 + Araçatuba U20 defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.00

Araçatuba U20 attack 1.00 + Corinthians U20 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Corinthians U20 scores more

77%

level

13%

Araçatuba U20 scores more

9%

Corinthians U20 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Nicolas Araujo

43'

L. Kevin

57'

Guilherme Gama

61'

Nicolas Araujo

76'

Brito Eduardo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff