Corinthians U17 3–0 Santos U17: Result & Stats

Corinthians U17

FT

3 – 0

Santos U17

7/15/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 3Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corinthians U1760%

×Draw20%

Santos U1720%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians U17Expected goals in this matchSantos U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.21

Corinthians U17

2.23

Santos U17

1.21

Corinthians U17 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

2.70

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Corinthians U17

2.70

Santos U17

1.38

allows per match

Corinthians U17

1.05

Santos U17

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Santos U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw

80%

Corinthians U17 or Santos U17

80%

Draw or Santos U17

40%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+

38%

Santos U17 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals

89%

Corinthians U17 2+ goals

65%

Corinthians U17 3+ goals

38%

Santos U17 1+ goals

70%

Santos U17 2+ goals

34%

Santos U17 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)

75%

Santos U17 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.23

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more

60%

level

20%

Santos U17 scores more

20%

Corinthians U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff