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Corinthians U17 vs Internacional U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional U17
Internacional U17
G. Amorim 63'
L. Caramico 30'
I. Machado 90' (OG)
7/8/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 9Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corinthians U1767%
×Draw18%
Internacional U1716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U17
2.45
Internacional U17
1.10

Corinthians U17 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Corinthians U17
2.70
Internacional U17
1.15

allows per match

Corinthians U17
1.05
Internacional U17
2.20

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par
Internacional U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Internacional U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw
84%
Corinthians U17 or Internacional U17
82%
Draw or Internacional U17
33%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
44%
Internacional U17 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals
91%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
70%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
44%
Internacional U17 1+ goals
67%
Internacional U17 2+ goals
30%
Internacional U17 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
81%
Internacional U17 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Internacional U17 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Internacional U17 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.45

Internacional U17 attack 1.15 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more
67%
level
18%
Internacional U17 scores more
16%

Corinthians U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
L. Caramico
63'
G. Amorim
90'
I. MachadoOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Corinthians U17 2–1 Internacional U17

Corinthians U17 beat Internacional U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on July 8, 2025.

Goals: L. Caramico (30'), G. Amorim (63'), I. Machado (90' o.g.).

The match was played at Parque São Jorge in São Paulo, São Paulo.