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Corinthians U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
6/9/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Corinthians U1767%
×Draw17%
Gremio U1716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U17
2.58
Gremio U17
1.19

Corinthians U17 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Corinthians U17
2.70
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Corinthians U17
1.05
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw
84%
Corinthians U17 or Gremio U17
83%
Draw or Gremio U17
33%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
45%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals
92%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
72%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
47%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
70%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
33%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
81%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.58

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more
67%
level
17%
Gremio U17 scores more
16%

Corinthians U17 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corinthians U17 7 – 0 Gremio U17

Corinthians U17 beat Gremio U17 7-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 9, 2026.