Corinthians U17 3–3 Cuiaba U17: Result & Stats

Corinthians U17

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Cuiaba U17

G. Amorim 82'

Kayque 45'

Denner 40'

M. Vinicius 68'

Marco Anthonio 31'

A. Vieira 20' (pen)

8/19/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 15Parque São Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Corinthians U1773%

×Draw16%

Cuiaba U1711%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians U17Expected goals in this matchCuiaba U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.86

Corinthians U17

2.55

Cuiaba U17

0.86

Corinthians U17 creates 197% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

2.70

creates per match

0.67

1.05

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Corinthians U17

2.70

Cuiaba U17

0.67

allows per match

Corinthians U17

1.05

Cuiaba U17

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw

89%

Corinthians U17 or Cuiaba U17

84%

Draw or Cuiaba U17

27%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+

51%

Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals

92%

Corinthians U17 2+ goals

72%

Corinthians U17 3+ goals

46%

Cuiaba U17 1+ goals

58%

Cuiaba U17 2+ goals

21%

Cuiaba U17 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)

87%

Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Cuiaba U17 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.55

Cuiaba U17 attack 0.67 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more

73%

level

16%

Cuiaba U17 scores more

11%

Corinthians U17 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. VieiraPenalty

31'

40'

45'

68'

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff