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Corinthians U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
L. Caramico 47'
G. Amorim 45'
J. Cervi 14'
5/28/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Corinthians U1754%
×Draw20%
Cruzeiro U1726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U17
2.35
Cruzeiro U17
1.58

Corinthians U17 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Corinthians U17
2.70
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Corinthians U17
1.05
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw
74%
Corinthians U17 or Cruzeiro U17
80%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
46%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
34%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals
90%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
68%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
41%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
79%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
47%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
68%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more
54%
level
20%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
26%

Corinthians U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
J. Cervi
45'
G. Amorim
47'
L. Caramico

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corinthians U17 vs Cruzeiro U17

Corinthians U17 beat Cruzeiro U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on May 28, 2025.

Goals: J. Cervi (14'), G. Amorim (45'), L. Caramico (47').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Santana do Parnaíba in Santana de Parnaíba, São Paulo.