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Corinthians U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
Preview
18:00
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
8/5/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 10
72%
Corinthians U17
model favours
72%17%11%

Corinthians U17 have scored in 19 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Corinthians U1772%
×Draw17%
Bahia U1711%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians U17
2.44
Bahia U17
0.86

Corinthians U17 creates 184% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Corinthians U17
2.70
Bahia U17
0.67

allows per match

Corinthians U17
1.05
Bahia U17
2.17

finishing

Corinthians U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Corinthians U17 or draw
89%
Corinthians U17 or Bahia U17
83%
Draw or Bahia U17
28%

Winning margin

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
49%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Corinthians U17 1+ goals
91%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
70%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
43%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
58%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
21%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
86%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians U17 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians U17 attack 2.70 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.44

Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Corinthians U17 scores more
72%
level
17%
Bahia U17 scores more
11%

Corinthians U17 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bahia U17 score first in only 7% of matches
  • Corinthians U17 score first in only 11% of matches
  • Bahia U17 win just 0% of their away games
  • Corinthians U17 have won 3 in a row
  • 74% of Corinthians U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (74% and 63% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
WWWLW
U17
DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corinthians U17 vs Bahia U17 — Match Preview

Corinthians U17 face Bahia U17 on August 5, 2026 in this Brasileiro U17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.