Bahia U17 2–1 Corinthians U17: Result & Stats

Bahia U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Corinthians U17

I. Machado 39' (OG)

Dell 9' (pen)

I. Machado 4'

5/13/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 1CT Evaristo de Macedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bahia U1734%

×Draw23%

Corinthians U1744%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bahia U17Expected goals in this matchCorinthians U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.81

Bahia U17

1.56

Corinthians U17

1.81

Corinthians U17 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

1.61

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bahia U17

1.61

Corinthians U17

1.61

allows per match

Bahia U17

2.00

Corinthians U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par

Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Corinthians U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw

56%

Bahia U17 or Corinthians U17

77%

Draw or Corinthians U17

66%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+

16%

Corinthians U17 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals

79%

Bahia U17 2+ goals

46%

Bahia U17 3+ goals

21%

Corinthians U17 1+ goals

84%

Corinthians U17 2+ goals

54%

Corinthians U17 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)

43%

Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Corinthians U17 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Corinthians U17 attack 1.61 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bahia U17 scores more

34%

level

23%

Corinthians U17 scores more

44%

Corinthians U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Corinthians U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

I. Machado

9'

DellPenalty

39'

I. MachadoOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff