Coria CF 0–2 Dos Hermanas: Result & Stats

Coria CF

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dos Hermanas

3/15/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Coria CF34%

×Draw25%

Dos Hermanas41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coria CFExpected goals in this matchDos Hermanas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.46

Coria CF

1.30

Dos Hermanas

1.46

Dos Hermanas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 19 away

1.07

creates per match

1.74

1.18

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Coria CF

1.07

Dos Hermanas

1.74

allows per match

Coria CF

1.18

Dos Hermanas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Dos Hermanas →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw

59%

Coria CF or Dos Hermanas

75%

Draw or Dos Hermanas

66%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+

15%

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals

73%

Coria CF 2+ goals

37%

Coria CF 3+ goals

14%

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals

77%

Dos Hermanas 2+ goals

43%

Dos Hermanas 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)

45%

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Coria CF scores more

34%

level

25%

Dos Hermanas scores more

41%

Dos Hermanas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dos Hermanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff