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Coria CF vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Coria CF
Coria CF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Conil
Conil
1/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Coria CF44%
×Draw28%
Conil28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coria CF
1.33
Conil
0.99

Coria CF creates 34% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

creates per match

Coria CF
1.07
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Coria CF
1.18
Conil
1.60

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw
72%
Coria CF or Conil
72%
Draw or Conil
56%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+
21%
Conil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals
74%
Coria CF 2+ goals
38%
Coria CF 3+ goals
15%
Conil 1+ goals
63%
Conil 2+ goals
26%
Conil 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)
61%
Conil (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Conil attack 0.81 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coria CF scores more
44%
level
28%
Conil scores more
28%

Coria CF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Coria CF 1–2 Conil

Conil beat Coria CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Guadalquivir in Coria del Río.