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Coria CF vs Atlético Onubense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Coria CF
Coria CF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
5/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Coria CF33%
×Draw28%
Atlético Onubense40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coria CF
1.13
Atlético Onubense
1.27

Atlético Onubense creates 12% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Coria CF
1.07
Atlético Onubense
1.35

allows per match

Coria CF
1.18
Atlético Onubense
1.18

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par
Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Atlético Onubense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw
60%
Coria CF or Atlético Onubense
72%
Draw or Atlético Onubense
67%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals
68%
Coria CF 2+ goals
31%
Coria CF 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)
45%
Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Atlético Onubense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Atlético Onubense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlético Onubense attack 1.35 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coria CF scores more
33%
level
28%
Atlético Onubense scores more
40%

Atlético Onubense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coria CF 1 – 2 Atlético Onubense

Atlético Onubense beat Coria CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Guadalquivir in Coria del Río.