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Coria CF vs Arcos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Coria CF
Coria CF
CANC
22:00
Arcos
Arcos
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 36Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Coria CF46%
×Draw28%
Arcos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coria CF
1.34
Arcos
0.94

Coria CF creates 43% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 28 away

creates per match

Coria CF
1.07
Arcos
0.71

allows per match

Coria CF
1.18
Arcos
1.61

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par
Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Arcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw
74%
Coria CF or Arcos
72%
Draw or Arcos
54%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+
22%
Arcos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals
74%
Coria CF 2+ goals
39%
Coria CF 3+ goals
15%
Arcos 1+ goals
61%
Arcos 2+ goals
24%
Arcos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)
64%
Arcos (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.34

Arcos attack 0.71 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coria CF scores more
46%
level
28%
Arcos scores more
26%

Coria CF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coria CF face Arcos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 returns with Coria CF hosting Arcos. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Coria CF host Arcos at Estadio Guadalquivir.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.