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Corellano vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Corellano
Corellano
CANC
00:00
Subiza
Subiza
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Campo CD Corellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Corellano35%
×Draw26%
Subiza39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corellano
1.30
Subiza
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

creates per match

Corellano
1.40
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

Corellano
1.44
Subiza
1.20

finishing

Corellano+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corellano ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Corellano or draw
61%
Corellano or Subiza
74%
Draw or Subiza
65%

Winning margin

Corellano wins by 2+
15%
Subiza wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Corellano 1+ goals
73%
Corellano 2+ goals
37%
Corellano 3+ goals
14%
Subiza 1+ goals
75%
Subiza 2+ goals
40%
Subiza 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Corellano (draw refunded)
48%
Subiza (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corellano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corellano attack 1.40 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Subiza attack 1.32 + Corellano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Corellano scores more
35%
level
26%
Subiza scores more
39%

Subiza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corellano face Subiza (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 returns with Corellano hosting Subiza. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Corellano host Subiza at Campo CD Corellano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.